BRC Weather

Black Rock City · 40.7864°N 119.2065°W · 3907 ft
Generated Tue 13 Oct 07:04 · 9/13 sources live

Now

32°wind 3 mph, gusts 5At the Man · modelled, not measured
28°RH 60%wind 2 mph, gusts 3Gerlach, 12 mi · measured, 0 min ago

Every forecast on this page is for Black Rock City itself — 40.7864°N 119.2065°W, the Man. Only the measured line comes from elsewhere, because there is no public sensor inside the city. Where the two disagree, believe the thermometer about temperature and the model about the playa.

Act on this

No hazards flagged

Nothing above threshold in the next 36 hours. This is not the same as "nothing will happen" — check the gust row below and use your eyes.

Peak UV 6 Moderate · ~12 min to burn
Tonight 32° swing 26° · layer by 16:00
Driest RH 21% mild
Record gust 42 mph, this week since 1996

Gusts, next 48 h

010203040 dusty 25secure 35 Tue061218Wed061218Tue 00:00 — 9 mph (models 3–12)Tue 01:00 — 6 mph (models 3–7)Tue 02:00 — 5 mph (models 3–7)Tue 03:00 — 5 mph (models 5–7)Tue 04:00 — 6 mph (models 5–7)Tue 05:00 — 6 mph (models 5–7)Tue 06:00 — 5 mph (models 2–6)Tue 07:00 — 5 mph (models 2–6)Tue 08:00 — 4 mph (models 3–7)Tue 09:00 — 6 mph (models 4–9)Tue 10:00 — 7 mph (models 5–10)Tue 11:00 — 9 mph (models 7–10)Tue 12:00 — 8 mph (models 7–11)Tue 13:00 — 9 mph (models 8–12)Tue 14:00 — 10 mph (models 8–12)Tue 15:00 — 11 mph (models 8–13)Tue 16:00 — 11 mph (models 9–13)Tue 17:00 — 13 mph (models 9–15)Tue 18:00 — 11 mph (models 8–20)Tue 19:00 — 7 mph (models 7–15)Tue 20:00 — 8 mph (models 4–12)Tue 21:00 — 7 mph (models 3–11)Tue 22:00 — 6 mph (models 4–9)Tue 23:00 — 5 mph (models 4–7)Wed 00:00 — 4 mph (models 3–6)Wed 01:00 — 4 mph (models 3–5)Wed 02:00 — 4 mph (models 3–6)Wed 03:00 — 4 mph (models 3–9)Wed 04:00 — 4 mph (models 3–10)Wed 05:00 — 5 mph (models 3–9)Wed 06:00 — 5 mph (models 2–9)Wed 07:00 — 5 mph (models 2–7)Wed 08:00 — 3 mph (models 2–5)Wed 09:00 — 4 mph (models 1–9)Wed 10:00 — 5 mph (models 2–8)Wed 11:00 — 4 mph (models 3–7)Wed 12:00 — 5 mph (models 3–9)Wed 13:00 — 5 mph (models 3–10)Wed 14:00 — 6 mph (models 3–11)Wed 15:00 — 7 mph (models 4–11)Wed 16:00 — 7 mph (models 4–10)Wed 17:00 — 7 mph (models 3–9)Wed 18:00 — 7 mph (models 2–9)Wed 19:00 — 6 mph (models 3–8)Wed 20:00 — 4 mph (models 3–7)Wed 21:00 — 4 mph (models 3–6)Wed 22:00 — 2 mph (models 2–5)Wed 23:00 — 2 mph (models 1–4)

ensemble medianmodel spreadmph · next 48 h

Can you see? Next 48 h

Tue 00:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Tue 01:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Tue 02:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Tue 03:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Tue 04:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Tue 05:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Tue 06:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Tue 07:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Tue 08:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Tue 09:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Tue 10:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Tue 11:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Tue 12:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Tue 13:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Tue 14:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Tue 15:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Tue 16:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Tue 17:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Tue 18:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Tue 19:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Tue 20:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Tue 21:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Tue 22:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Tue 23:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Wed 00:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Wed 01:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Wed 02:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Wed 03:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Wed 04:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Wed 05:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Wed 06:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Wed 07:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Wed 08:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Wed 09:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Wed 10:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Wed 11:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Wed 12:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Wed 13:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Wed 14:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Wed 15:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Wed 16:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Wed 17:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Wed 18:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Wed 19:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Wed 20:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Wed 21:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Wed 22:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Wed 23:00 — Clear (driven by gusts, 3/3 signals agree)Tue061218Wed061218

clearhazydustypoorwhiteout

daily high this week against 1996-2025

4050607080 TueWedThuFriSatSunMonTue: forecast 42 °F, 0th percentile. Typical 66, usual range 55–77, record 86.Wed: forecast 49 °F, 2th percentile. Typical 66, usual range 54–76, record 86.Thu: forecast 52 °F, 7th percentile. Typical 66, usual range 54–75, record 86.Fri: forecast 56 °F, 15th percentile. Typical 66, usual range 53–75, record 83.Sat: forecast 58 °F, 20th percentile. Typical 66, usual range 54–75, record 83.Sun: forecast 58 °F, 21th percentile. Typical 66, usual range 53–74, record 83.Mon: forecast 51 °F, 4th percentile. Typical 65, usual range 53–73, record 82.

this week's forecasttypical middle halfusual range (10th–90th)dashed = normal

GUST PERCENTILES SUPPRESSED. Raw ERA5 gusts are compressed at both ends - its 30-year maximum here is 42 mph, below gust speeds documented at this site in single events, while its median runs high. Temperature and precipitation climatology below are unaffected and can be trusted.

ERA5 is a ~25 km reanalysis grid. It cannot resolve a playa gust front, so peak gusts here are smoothed and read LOW. Use the shape of the distribution, and treat the tail as a floor. The forecast comes from a different system, so a percentile rank is context, not calibration.

Dust outlook (CAMS surface dust, µg/m³)

DayPeak dustPeak PM10Peak UV
Tue 13 Oct1.0105
Wed 14 Oct1.035
Thu 15 Oct2.026
Fri 16 Oct3.046
Sat 17 Oct2.045

Modelled aerosol, ~45 km grid. It resolves regional dust loading, not the local whiteout your camp is standing in — that comes from the gust row above and from looking outside.

Seven days

DayHighLowGustsRainConf
Tue 13 Oct 42° (41–45) 32° 10 (5–16) 0% medium
Wed 14 Oct 49° (48–51) 38° 5 (2–7) 0% high
Thu 15 Oct 52° (50–53) 45° 13 (9–16) 0% medium
Fri 16 Oct 56° (50–59) 47° 7 (4–14) 0% low
Sat 17 Oct 58° (54–59) 44° 5 (2–9) 0% medium
Sun 18 Oct 58° (55–59) 46° 11 (7–15) 0% medium
Mon 19 Oct 51° (46–54) 44° 17 (15–24) 4% medium
How to read the brackets. Every number is the median of independent forecast models (ECMWF, GFS, ICON, GEM, ARPEGE). The bracketed range is how far apart those models are. Wide brackets mean nobody knows yet — plan for the bad end. Narrow brackets mean the models agree, which is not the same as being right: they share observations and physics, so the spread is a floor on the real uncertainty, not a measure of it.

Model output is bias-corrected against the Gerlach station using 90 paired samples from the last 10 days. That correction removes model bias AND a fixed Gerlach-to-playa offset together, and cannot separate them.
NWS Reno forecast discussion (the human forecaster, verbatim)
000
FXUS65 KREV 130916
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
216 AM PDT Tue Oct 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A gradual warming trend begins today with one more night of near 
  freezing temperatures in lower valleys. 

* Light breezes return each afternoon through this week into the 
  weekend. 

* Showers, wind and cold temperatures may return early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

This morning's chilly air will begin to moderate starting today, 
with upper 50s to near 60 for western Nevada valleys and upper 40s 
to near 50 for Sierra valleys. We will see one more night of near 
freezing temperatures across western Nevada valleys, but our Sierra 
friends will have below freezing temperatures through mid week. 

A ridging pattern builds back over the region through this week, 
allowing for our temperatures to gently climb back to above seasonal 
averages by late week. Along with the upward nudge in temperatures, 
we will see a downward trend in winds. Afternoon gusts today will 
range 10-15 mph over leeside valleys as the gusts over the Sierra 
will be up to 35 mph. After today, winds will taper over the Sierra 
and remain lower over the western Nevada. All in all, this upcoming 
week looks rather benign when compared to our recent weather 
pattern. 

There are signals in the longer range outlooks indicating another 
trough will drop in along the Pacific coast, which could bring back 
colder air, showers and gusty winds. Stay tuned as we keep our 
eyes on early next week's forecast details. HRICH

&&

.AVIATION...

* Clouds will continue to move eastward through the morning hours,
  but some terrain obscuration will be possible through daybreak.
  VFR conditions will prevail over the region, although there will
  be LLWS and turbulence prevalent over the Sierra through 00z
  Tuesday. Wind gusts will range 15-20 kts for western Nevada
  valley terminals, as well as KTVL and KTRK. KMMH may see gusts
  up to 30 kts this afternoon. HRICH

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$