BRC Weather

Black Rock City · 40.7864°N 119.2065°W · 3907 ft
Generated Fri 14 Aug 19:16 · 7/9 sources live

Now

87°RH 18%wind 15 mph, gusts 23Buffalo Creek, 78 min ago

Act on this

No hazards flagged

Nothing above threshold in the next 36 hours. This is not the same as "nothing will happen" — check the gust row below and use your eyes.

Gusts, next 24 h (mph, ensemble median)

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Dust outlook (CAMS surface dust, µg/m³)

DayPeak dustPeak PM10Peak UV
Fri 14 Aug5.0159
Sat 15 Aug19.0199
Sun 16 Aug8.0199
Mon 17 Aug10.0169
Tue 18 Aug2.0710

Modelled aerosol, ~45 km grid. It resolves regional dust loading, not the local whiteout your camp is standing in — that comes from the gust row above and from looking outside.

Seven days

DayHighLowGustsRainConf
Fri 14 Aug 85° (82–87) 60° 16 (16–19) 4% medium
Sat 15 Aug 87° (85–89) 63° 17 (14–19) 3% medium
Sun 16 Aug 90° (89–91) 62° 16 (12–20) 0% medium
Mon 17 Aug 91° (88–92) 68° 19 (15–24) 2% medium
Tue 18 Aug 91° (90–94) 65° 13 (10–25) 0% low
Wed 19 Aug 95° (93–96) 67° 14 (7–23) 1% low
Thu 20 Aug 96° (93–99) 69° 15 (12–22) 4% medium
How to read the brackets. Every number is the median of independent forecast models (ECMWF, GFS, ICON, GEM, ARPEGE). The bracketed range is how far apart those models are. Wide brackets mean nobody knows yet — plan for the bad end. Narrow brackets mean the models agree, which is not the same as being right: they share observations and physics, so the spread is a floor on the real uncertainty, not a measure of it.

Bias correction not yet active — not enough verified samples. It needs a few days of logging before it does anything.
NWS Reno forecast discussion (the human forecaster, verbatim)
000
FXUS65 KREV 141949
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1249 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered thunderstorms expected again this afternoon and
  evening.

* Quiet weather this weekend with warm but below average
  temperatures, light winds, and no precipitation.

* Most of next week will be seasonably warm and mainly dry. A few
  buildups or isolated storms cannot be ruled out over the high
  terrain. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* Another round of showers/t-storms expected this afternoon but
  less widespread than the past couple days. Probabilities are
  20-40%. Based on the HREF we're looking at mid-afternoon
  development along Hwy 395 and adjacent high terrain, which then
  pushes eastward late afternoon into early evening. Typical
  impacts: outflow gusts 30-40 MPH, lightning, possible new fire 
  starts, and brief heavy rain up to 1"/hour, and of course small 
  hail.

* Quiet pattern for this weekend with warm but below average 
  temperatures, good humidity recoveries, little/no precip, and 
  light afternoon breezes.

* Regarding smoke potential, unless there's a big shift upward in
  fire activity or new fires, smoke models are not showing much in
  our area through the weekend. Localized smoke/haze is possible
  near ongoing fires such as the Bug, Stallion, and Talbot.

* Next week also looks relatively tame weather-wise compared to
  this past week, as high pressure builds over the Great Basin
  with a trough along the west coast. Basically that yields warm
  daytime temps but nothing excessive, typical afternoon zephyr
  breezes, lower humidities which also brings cooler nighttime 
  lows, and little/no precip. There's a 5-10% chance of buildups 
  or even isolated storms over the high terrain starting Thursday 
  but confidence is low.

-Chris

&&

.AVIATION...

* Scattered t-storms expected from roughly 22z/14-04z/15 that
  could bring brief periods of MVFR conditions in rain. Erratic
  outflow winds 25-35 knots, lightning, and small hail are
  possible. Main risk area includes RNO, CXP, MEV, HTH, NFL, and
  LOL. Blowing dust is possible near NFL/LOL.

* Outside of storms today and through the weekend, expect VFR 
  conditions with light/variable winds turning westerly each 
  afternoon with scattered mid/high altitude clouds. Fog at TRK 
  can never be ruled out, but with limited precipitation there the
  past few days, the odds for Saturday morning are low ~10%.

-Chris

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$